My research on the history of weather gambling has brought me into the present world of online prediction markets, which I find fascinating and horrifying in equal measure. Here are some of my recent takes on weather and climate prediction markets:
- On what angles I think media coverage of weather and climate prediction markets has missed (as of June 2026)
- On the suspected tampering of an airport weather device in Paris in April 2026 and how it fits into the long history of weather gambling: “The real-world consequences of gambling on the weather,” Made by History, Philadelphia Inquirer, May 14, 2026.
- On prediction markets on the LA wildfires in January 2025 and the origins and costs of betting on catastrophe: “Catastrophe Markets,” Aeon, March 27, 2026.
- “Catastrophe Markets” featured in «J’espère que je vais perdre» : sur l’appli de trading Polymarket, parier sur les catastrophes climatiques peut vous rapporter gros and “Polymarket Has Turned Our Climate Apocalypse Into a Casino”
- My conversation with journalist Chris Westfall on “Why Mixing Catastrophes with Prediction Markets is More Dangerous Than It Looks,” Risky Science Podcast, April 15, 2026.
Jamie L. Pietruska 