My research on the history of weather gambling has brought me into the present world of online prediction markets, which I find fascinating and horrifying in equal measure. Here are some of my recent takes:
Essays
- On the suspected tampering of an airport weather device in Paris in April 2026 and how it fits into the long history of weather gambling: “The real-world consequences of gambling on the weather,” Made by History, Philadelphia Inquirer, May 14, 2026
- On prediction markets on the LA wildfires in January 2025 and the origins and costs of betting on catastrophe: “Catastrophe Markets,” Aeon, March 27, 2026
- “Catastrophe Markets” featured in «J’espère que je vais perdre» : sur l’appli de trading Polymarket, parier sur les catastrophes climatiques peut vous rapporter gros and “Polymarket Has Turned Our Climate Apocalypse Into a Casino”
Podcasts
- My appearance in the prediction market episode of Tunnel Vision, June 17, 2026
- My conversation with journalist Chris Westfall on “Why Mixing Catastrophes with Prediction Markets is More Dangerous Than It Looks,” Risky Science Podcast, April 15, 2026
Interviews
- Quoted in Oliver Milman, “Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets,” The Guardian, September 2, 2026
- Quoted in Anna Helhoksi, ‘The Business of Betting on Natural Disasters,” NerdWallet, August 27, 2026
- Quoted in Hannah Fry, “As L.A. burned, online gamblers bet on how much the fire would destroy. ‘That was fun,'” Los Angeles Times, August 18, 2026
- Quoted in Cole Reynolds, “Polymarket let users bet on wildfires. Lawmakers warn that could spur arson,” Washington Post, August 12, 2026
- Quoted in Sophie Sullivan, “US Senators urge crackdown on wildfire markets amid warnings of arson risk,” The Guardian, August 6, 2026
Other thoughts
- On what angles I think media coverage of weather and climate prediction markets has missed (as of June 2026)
Jamie L. Pietruska 